April 7, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update

Hey everyone, it’s an exciting time to dive into the Austin real estate market, and this week’s Monday Touch Point—recorded live on April 7, 2025—has some wild updates to share. From bond market chaos to exploding inventory, here’s what’s happening in Central Texas and how it impacts agents and clients alike. Let’s break it down with actionable insights you can use today.

Bond Market Rollercoaster: Rates on the Rise

The bond market kicked off the week with a bang, jumping 12.3 basis points on the 10-year Treasury. Why does this matter? Yields are climbing, and mortgage rates are following suit. We ended last week at 6.25% for a 30-year fixed conventional loan, but after crossing three repricing lines today, we’re likely headed toward 6.75%. That wipes out two weeks of rate gains—talk about a gut punch! For buyers, this means affordability is tightening, so lock in rates ASAP if you’re in the game. Agents, prep your clients for this shift now.

Inventory Explosion: A Record-Breaking Pace

Inventory is surging, and the numbers are jaw-dropping. In the six-county area (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, Burnet), we’re at 14,498 active listings—up 20% year-over-year. New listings hit 1,520 just today, and we’re on track to break last year’s record of 15,553 by mid-April. The new listing-to-pending ratio? A stunning 0.40 for the month so far. This flood of homes is putting serious pressure on pricing, especially in oversaturated zip codes like 78752, where 51 months of inventory sit between $500K–$600K. Sellers, price competitively—or get left behind.

Market Bifurcation: Winners and Losers

We’re seeing a tale of two markets. High-end homes are still closing strong, pushing the average sold price up 2.4% year-over-year in March. But the median? Down 4% to $439,534—20% off its May 2022 peak. The bottom 40% of the market is feeling the squeeze, while the top 25% holds firm. For agents, this means tailoring strategies: luxury listings need bold marketing, while mid-tier homes need sharp pricing to move.

Cap Rates Shine: Investment Opportunities

Here’s a bright spot—17 zip codes now boast cap rates above the six-month T-bill, the highest in four years. Take 78725: a median sold price of $299K with $23K in gross rent. Investors, this is your cue to jump in. Check our cap rate resource on https://teamprice.com/cap-rate to pinpoint deals that beat parking cash in Treasuries. Demand for investment properties could heat up, so act fast.

Tips for Agents and Clients

Agents: Ditch ASAP searches for clients in high-inventory areas like Round Rock or Hutto—spam overload kills trust. Use our zip code reports (three clicks away at https://teamprice.com/data-analysis) for hyper-local data.

Clients: Buyers, shop smart—more inventory means more negotiating power. Sellers, April isn’t the peak anymore; price right to stand out in this flood.

The market’s moving fast, and staying ahead is key. Dive into the full video and stats below to master this chaos. 

Daily Market Summary

13498 (+20.0% YoY) : Active Residential Listings

0.49 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio

97.34% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio

6.500% :  30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate

4.168% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Timestamps 

0:00:21 - Bond Market Surge Breakdown  

0:01:41 - Mortgage Rate Shifts Explained  

0:06:47 - New Listings Hit 1,520 Today  

0:09:44 - Pending Sales Update: 340 This Week  

0:13:08 - Monthly Ratio Drops to 0.40  

0:18:30 - Sold Stats: 257 So Far in April  

0:23:20 - Cumulative Inventory at 14,498  

0:27:29 - Months of Inventory Climbs to 5.14  

0:38:39 - Economic Calendar Preview  

0:40:13 - Bond Market Live Check: Up 12.3 Points  

0:42:00 - Cap Rates Beat T-Bills in 17 Zip Codes  

0:45:22 - Price Per Square Foot Tool Demo  

0:51:49 - For Sale By Owner Stats Revealed  

0:55:06 - Upcoming Team Events Announced  

The April 7, 2025 Monday Touch Point unpacked a surging bond market (up 12.3 basis points), a 20% year-over-year inventory jump to 14,498 listings, and a record-low 0.40 new listing-to-pending ratio. Key highlights included rising mortgage rates nearing 6.75%, investment opportunities with cap rates beating T-bills in 17 zip codes, and actionable data for agents via teamprice.com. The session offered critical insights into a bifurcated market and upcoming economic indicators.