April 21, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update

Welcome to the April 21, 2025, Monday Touch Point, where we dive into the latest Austin real estate market trends with data-driven insights to empower agents and clients. It’s an exciting time in Austin, Texas, with significant shifts in inventory, pending ratios, and builder forecasts signaling changes ahead. Let’s break down the key metrics, predictions, and opportunities shaping the market today.

New Listing to Pending Ratio: A Market at a Crossroads

This week’s new listing to pending ratio stands at 0.47, driven by 1,258 new listings and 251 pendings across the six-county Austin area. While Easter weekend contributed to lower listings, the 251 pendings exceeded expectations, offering a glimmer of optimism. However, this ratio marks a decline from last week’s 0.51 and a peak of 0.80 on March 17, signaling a substantial increase in inventory. Historically, a ratio below 0.5 indicates the market has “hit a wall,” with supply far outpacing demand. For agents, this means advising sellers to price competitively to stand out in a crowded market.

Record-Breaking Inventory Levels

As of today, Austin’s active listings hit 15,564, up 21.5% year-over-year and 13.63% month-over-month. This surge, which began accelerating in early March, broke the previous record set on July 15, 2024. With an additional 2,341 listings added this month alone, April 2025 is on track to be the second-highest month for inventory growth in 25 years, trailing only June 2022. This inventory boom, coupled with a 4.5% drop in pending activity, suggests pricing pressure is imminent. Clients should be prepared for longer days on market and potential price adjustments.

Bifurcated Market: Opportunities and Challenges

Austin’s market remains sharply bifurcated. The top 25th percentile of homes (luxury segment) saw prices rise 5.6% month-over-month, while the bottom 25th percentile (entry-level homes) declined 1.8%. This split creates unique opportunities: first-time buyers can find deals in the lower end, while high-end sellers benefit from strong demand. Agents must tailor strategies to each segment—highlighting value for affordable homes and exclusivity for premium properties. With 47.5% of listings experiencing price drops, cities like Wimberly (58.7%) face the highest reductions, while Cedar Park (37%) remains more resilient.

Builder and Economic Insights: A Slowing Spring

D.R. Horton, America’s largest homebuilder, reported a 15% drop in national sales orders for Q1 2025, with Austin among the cities seeing significant declines. Their aggressive incentives, including 3.99% fixed-rate offers, reflect rising new construction inventory. Meanwhile, Zillow downgraded its 2025 home price forecast to a modest 0.8% increase, a sharp revision from 2.9% two months ago. These trends point to a broader market correction, though Austin’s pain is less severe compared to 2023. For buyers, this opens doors to negotiate with builders; for sellers, it underscores the need for realistic pricing.

Actionable Advice for Agents and Clients

The data paints a clear picture: Austin’s market is cooling, but opportunities abound. Agents should leverage the Top 100 Opportunities list, sent out this morning, to engage clients with properties featuring price drops or below-tax-value sales. Share these insights on social media to spark conversations. For sellers, staging and professional photography are non-negotiable to compete. Buyers should act on lower-end homes or new construction deals, especially with builders offering incentives. Stay ahead by monitoring the new listing to pending ratio weekly—it’s the best indicator of where the market is headed.

Looking Ahead: A Dynamic Spring

With GDP, PCE, and employment data due next week, economic signals will further shape the market. Austin’s 0.50 monthly ratio—the lowest April on record—suggests inventory will continue climbing, potentially reaching 16,000 listings by next week. While closings are projected to hit 2,600 this month (up 1.1% from last month), they’ll likely fall short of 2024’s numbers. Agents and clients who adapt to this shifting landscape—embracing data and strategic pricing—will thrive in 2025.

FAQs

1. What is the new listing to pending ratio, and why does it matter?

The new listing to pending ratio measures new listings versus properties going under contract. A ratio below 0.5, like April 2025’s 0.47, signals rising inventory and potential pricing pressure, helping agents and clients gauge market trends.

2. Why is Austin’s real estate market considered bifurcated?

Austin’s market is bifurcated because high-end homes (top 25th percentile) are rising in price (up 5.6%), while entry-level homes (bottom 25th percentile) are declining (down 1.8%), creating distinct opportunities for buyers and sellers.

3. How can buyers take advantage of the current Austin market?

Buyers can target lower-end homes with price drops or negotiate with builders like D.R. Horton, who are offering incentives such as 3.99% fixed-rate mortgages to move inventory.

4. What should sellers do in a market with rising inventory?

Sellers should price competitively, invest in staging and professional photography, and work with agents to highlight their home’s value, especially in a market with 15,564 active listings.

5. How does Team Price’s Top 100 Opportunities list help clients?

The Top 100 Opportunities list curates properties with price reductions or below-tax-value sales, giving agents a tool to engage clients and highlight high-value deals in the Austin area.

Daily Market Summary

15,564 (+21.5% YoY) : Active Residential Listings

0.47 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio

97.69% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio

6.875% :  30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate

4.386% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Timestamps 

0:00:00 - Intro: Austin Market Shocker!

0:00:17 - What’s Coming: Ratios, Inventory, Builders

0:02:16 - New Listing to Pending Ratio Breakdown

0:07:42 - Weekly Update: 0.47 Ratio, 251 Pendings

0:11:20 - Monthly Stats: 0.50 Ratio, 2,341 Net Listings

0:19:40 - Inventory Explosion: 15,564 Listings

0:24:56 - Foreclosure Alerts: Notice of Default Doubles

0:37:51 - Bifurcated Market: Luxury vs. Affordable Homes

0:43:04 - D.R. Horton’s Alarming 2025 Forecast

0:47:11 - Zillow’s Grim 2025 Price Outlook

0:49:17 - Pricing Pressure: What’s Next?

0:50:03 - Wrap-Up: Questions & Next Steps

The April 21, 2025 Monday Touch Point explores Austin’s real estate market, highlighting a 0.47 new listing to pending ratio and record-high 15,564 active listings. Key discussions include a bifurcated market with luxury homes outperforming entry-level properties, D.R. Horton’s 15% sales drop, and Zillow’s downgraded 2025 forecast. Actionable insights empower agents and clients to navigate rising inventory and pricing pressures. Stay informed at https://teamprice.com/insight-and-statistics!