February 24, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update

By Dan Price, Broker at Team Price Real Estate

Good morning, Austin real estate fans! On February 24, 2025, I kicked off our Monday Touch Point with a deep dive into the Austin market—and let me tell you, it’s a dynamic time out there. With nearly 20 years as a broker, I’m here to break down the latest data, trends, and what’s coming next for our industry. Here’s what we covered in this week’s hour-long update.

Inventory on the Rise : As of February 24, we’ve crossed the 12,000 active listing mark—12,101 to be exact—up 18.5% from last year. That’s a tangible increase, driven by a new listing-to-pending ratio of 0.73. What does that mean? More homes are hitting the market (108 new listings that day alone, with 130+ expected by midnight) than going pending (258 for the week). Months of inventory are creeping toward 4.5, signaling a buyer’s market is solidifying. Compared to last year’s 0.96 ratio for the same week, demand is lagging, and that’s putting pressure on prices.

Pricing Trends: A Tale of Two Markets : Here’s where it gets interesting. The average sold price jumped 10.7% month-over-month—second only to a peak 25 years ago—driven by high-end sales. Yet the median sold price rose just 5.4%, showing affordability challenges below $500K. Builders are adapting fast, offering incentives like 4.99% FHA rates with 3-2-1 buy-downs, while resale sellers are holding firm, often chasing the market down with price drops (86% of increases flipped to decreases by month’s end).

Shadow Inventory Looms : Distress signals are subtle but real. We’re tracking 45 short sales on the MLS, but realist data reveals 725 pre-foreclosure, auction, and bank-owned properties in Austin alone—15 times what’s listed. This shadow inventory could flood the market if banks act, pushing us closer to a crash threshold (prices down 20%+ over three months, ratio below 0.6). Right now, we’re in a severe, sustained correction, not a crash—but keep an eye on those numbers.

2025 Forecast: Deflation Ahead? Rates are under 7% for the fourth week (6.85% as of Feb 24), with bond markets down 3.3 basis points. But buyers are pausing, convinced prices and rates will drop further in 6–12 months. I agree—consumer sentiment is shifting, and I predict a 12–15% price decline over the next 12–36 months. We’re entering a deflationary cycle, not just in real estate but across retail (think Walmart cutting prices). My 2016 market cycle report nailed this transition from expansion to contraction—check it out in our resources!

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Actionable Advice : For agents: Price listings aggressively—sellers need to face this data. For buyers: Look for deals now, especially from builders. This week’s economic calendar—Case-Shiller HPI, PCE inflation—could sway rates, so stay tuned for Friday’s update. Watch the video below for the full breakdown, including our guesses on pendings (258 beat the highest at 255!).

Explore More : Missed something? The embedded video has it all—data, charts, and my hoarse-but-recovering voice from cedar season. Scroll up to 2025 Archive for the full year’s archive. Let’s keep navigating this market together!

Daily Market Summary
12,101 (+18.5% YoY) : Active Residential Listings
0.61 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio
97.14% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio
6.750% : 30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate
4.401% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Top Highlights

0:00:00 - Welcome to Monday Touch Point

The meeting kicks off with an energetic greeting, setting the stage for a deep dive into Austin’s real estate market on this beautiful February 24, 2025, morning. 

Action Item: Join the next Zoom session to stay in the loop!

0:01:09 - Rates Drop Below 7% Again

Mortgage rates are under 7% for the fourth week, with bond market gains sparking optimism—check the big screen backdrop! 

Summary: Positive rate movement could boost demand if it holds.

0:05:07 - New Listing to Pending Ratio Update

The team dives into updating the critical new listing-to-pending ratio, revealing a 0.75 week-over-week figure—inventory’s creeping up! 

Action Item: Review the latest ratio PDF on the Team Price site tomorrow.

0:08:03 - Surprise! 108 New Listings Today

A shocking 108 new listings hit the market by 10:10 AM, with a prediction of 130+ by midnight—beating last June’s peak! 

Summary: New inventory is surging, defying expectations.

0:11:25 - 258 Pendings Beat Expectations

Pending sales hit 258, topping the team’s highest guess of 255, showing demand’s resilience despite rising inventory. 

Summary: Rates under 7% are driving more contracts than anticipated.

0:14:19 - Monthly Market Data Revealed

February’s stats drop: 1,078 pendings, a 0.71 ratio, and 1,570 closings—better than January’s 0.68 but lagging last year. 

Action Item: Analyze the monthly PDF for client discussions.

0:24:22 - Buyer Pause and Deflation Prediction

Buyers are holding off, expecting lower prices and rates in 6–12 months, leading to a bold 12–15% price drop forecast over 12–36 months. 

Summary: Consumer sentiment hints at a deflationary shift ahead.

0:31:36 - Real Estate Cycle Insights

A 2016 cycle report predicts a 2023–2026 peak construction phase transitioning into a 2025–2028 recession—spot-on so far! 

Action Item: Download the cycle report from the Team Price drive.

0:36:30 - This Time Is Different Book Recommendation

“This Time Is Different” by Reinhart and Rogoff is pitched as a must-read, debunking the “unique market” myth with 800 years of data. 

Action Item: Grab it on Audible for a dense but worthwhile read.

0:39:04 - Austin’s Teetering Market Explained

Austin’s in a severe correction, not a crash—prices teeter with a 10% monthly jump but stagnant year-over-year demand. 

Summary: A nationwide correction could drag prices down another 15%.

0:48:25 - Economic Calendar Preview

This week’s big hitters—Case-Shiller HPI, PCE inflation, and GDP—could sway rates; Friday’s PCE is the Fed’s key marker. 

Action Item: Tune in Friday for the updated rate impact.

0:53:40 - Inventory Hits 12,101 Listings

Active listings soar to 12,101 (up 18.5% YoY), pendings drop to 4,000+ (down 12.5%), and short sales creep to 45. 

Summary: Inventory’s up, absorption’s down—buyer’s market intensifies.

0:56:15 - Shadow Inventory Warning

Realist data uncovers 725 distressed properties in Austin alone—15x the MLS count—hinting at a hidden flood risk. 

Summary: Unlisted foreclosures could tip the market further.

1:03:07 - Pricing Shocks: 10.7% Average Jump

Average sold prices spike 10.7% month-over-month—second-best in 25 years—while medians lag at 5.4%, spotlighting high-end strength. 

Summary: Luxury sales thrive as affordability squeezes lower tiers.

1:07:08 - Top 100 Opportunities Teased

The meeting wraps with a teaser for the Top 100 Opportunities list, set to drop today or tomorrow for social media sharing. 

Action Item: Watch for the list and post it to boost engagement.