March 10, 2025 - Monday Touch Point
March 10, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update
Welcome to the March 10, 2025 Monday Touch Point! Today, I’m breaking down the latest Austin real estate market trends with fresh data, actionable insights, and a no-nonsense look at where we’re headed. The market’s shifting fast, and whether you’re an agent or a client, this update will arm you with what you need to thrive. Let’s dive in.
New Listings & Inventory: A Flood of Options
The Austin market is seeing a tidal wave of new listings—1,367 hit the six-county area (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, Burnet) in the past week alone, with projections nearing 1,500 by tomorrow. That’s a 25-listing jump year-over-year, signaling a substantial inventory increase. Active listings now sit at 12,928, up 9.76% month-over-month and 18.9% year-over-year. The new list-to-pending ratio? A chilly 0.44, likely settling between 0.55–0.6 by week’s end. This means supply’s outpacing demand, pushing us firmly into a neutral market at 5.12 months of inventory. Sellers, price it right and perfect—buyers have choices now.
Pending Sales & Activity: A Cooling Trend
Pending sales are lagging, with only 223 properties going under contract this week, down 10% from last year. The activity index dropped to 23.8%, a stark contrast to 2024’s 29.2% this week. Why? Despite rates dipping to 6.5% (and FHA under 6%!), economic uncertainty—layoffs, tariff talks, and stock market jitters—is spooking buyers. Don’t expect lower rates to spark a buying frenzy; history shows demand lags when confidence wanes. Agents, focus on hyperlocal data—zip codes like 78749 (31.9% activity) are still moving, while 78701 (11 months of inventory) is ice-cold.
Price Trends: A Bifurcated Market
Here’s the wild part: average sold prices soared 9.9% month-over-month and 8.6% year-over-year, with medians up 1.4%. How? It’s a bifurcated market—fewer sales, but pricier homes are closing. The bottom 50% of the market’s getting hammered by insurance, taxes, and rates, while the top 75th percentile thrives, skewing averages up. Don’t be fooled—this isn’t a “hot market” signal. Drill into your neighborhood’s data; 78747’s sweet spot is $350K–$450K at 1,700–2,000 sq ft—target that for results.
Predictions: Buckle Up for a Wild Week
This week’s economic calendar is massive—CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, consumer sentiment Friday. Bond markets are jittery (down 8.2 basis points today), and stocks are sliding (NASDAQ -3.5%). If CPI runs hot, rates could spike; if it cools, we might see relief. Either way, inventory’s climbing, short sales are creeping up (49 now), and distress properties are suppressed (13.43% of FHA loans past due). A correction’s possible, but don’t wait for rates to save the day—hustle now, win your share.
Actionable Advice: Own Your Market
Sellers, patience is key—list competitively or sit. Buyers, negotiate hard on stale listings (60–120 days); concessions are up. Agents, use our new activity index tool—click city or zip code for price and size breakdowns. Example: 78739’s 1,800–1,900 sq ft at $450K–$550K is hot (100% activity). Open houses? Pick winners, not duds. And set your thermostat high—market conditions don’t dictate your success; your hustle does.
Stay ahead with Team Price’s data-driven resources. Let’s make 2025 exceptional—4 million website views, here we come!
Timestamps
0:00:00 - Welcome to Monday Touch Point: March 10, 2025
0:00:41 - New Listings & Pending Ratio Update
0:03:51 - Market Equilibrium Explained
0:07:33 - Weekly Market Data Breakdown
0:12:58 - Team Discussion: What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
0:14:47 - Why Aren’t Lower Rates Moving the Market?
0:19:24 - Monthly Data Update: Inventory Surge
0:25:26 - Website Goal Smashed: 2M Views Incoming!
0:33:25 - Active Listings & Activity Index Insights
0:36:15 - Short Sales Explained: Process & Trends
0:50:32 - City & Zip Code Market Breakdown
0:57:01 - New Resource: Activity Index by Price & Size
1:01:16 - Price Trends: Bifurcated Market Revealed
1:06:09 - Bond Market & Economic Calendar Preview
1:11:11 - FHA Loans & Distress Property Insights
Daily Market Summary
- 12,928 (+18.9% YoY) : Active Residential Listings
- 0.44 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio
- 97.44% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio
- 6.500% : 30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate
- 4.223% : 10-Year Bond Yield
