March 17, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update

Welcome to our March 17, 2025 Monday Touch Point. Today, we’re diving deep into the Austin market’s latest shifts—think rising inventory, cooling demand, and a surprising price twist. Spring break may have lightened the traffic (thank goodness!), but the data’s heavy with insights you won’t want to miss. Let’s break it down.

Inventory’s Piling Up—Here’s the Proof

First off, the numbers don’t lie. Our new listing-to-pending ratio for March 10-17 sits at a chilly 0.53, with 1,329 new listings dwarfing 281 pendings across the six-county area (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, and Burnet). That’s a substantial inventory spike—up 436 listings week-over-week and 1,462 month-over-month, landing us at 11,364 active listings. Compared to last year, we’re up 21.7%, while pendings are down 10.9%. Translation? More homes are hitting the market than buyers are snapping up, pushing us to 5.3 months of inventory—hello, buyer’s market territory!

Back-on-the-Market Hits a 21-Year Low

Here’s a jaw-dropper: only 12% of listings went back on the market this week—the lowest in over two decades. Why? Sellers are negotiating hard to keep deals alive post-contract, especially during inspections or financing hiccups. In hotter markets like 2021, we saw 41% back-on-the-market as buyers bailed impulsively. Now, with options galore (20-30 homes for a $500K-$650K buyer!), sellers know relisting means tougher competition. Agents, this screams opportunity—backup offers might just be your golden ticket.

Prices Are Up—But Don’t Celebrate Yet

Despite the slowdown, average sold prices jumped 7.4% month-over-month, and the median rose 6.4%. Confused? We’re in a bifurcated market. High-end homes are still moving (top 25th percentile down just 5%), while lower-end sales tank (bottom 35th percentile down 20%). It’s like a store where fewer shoppers show up, but they’re splurging on premium goods. Warning: this isn’t sustainable. As upper-tier demand softens—already hinting at a pullback with pending prices ($257/sq ft) lagging active ($319/sq ft)—expect a price dip by May or June.

Hyper-Local Wins the Day

Real estate’s always hyper-local, and our data proves it. Cedar Park, Manor, and Round Rock cling to seller’s markets, while 13 cities (up from 5 in January) now favor buyers. ZIP code 78703 hit a 12-month activity index high, but 78705 sank to a low. Agents, dive into our daily-updated ZIP code reports on teamprice.com—whether it’s 63 months of inventory in Lago Vista ($600K-$700K) or 1.5 months in 78739 (under $600K), you’ve got the edge to guide clients right.

Predictions & Action Steps

My call? By May, we’ll smash last year’s active listing peak (13,503 on July 15, 2024). Inventory’s on a straight climb, and with builder confidence dropping (NAHB index at 39) and buyer traffic down to 24, demand’s not keeping pace. Prices will pull back—watch for it. Agents, lean on leading indicators like our new listing-to-pending ratio, not lagging months of inventory. Clients need you to position them now—buyers, negotiate hard; sellers, price sharp. Check our resources at teamprice.com/insights for the latest!

Timestamps

0:00:00 - Welcome to Monday Touch Point  

0:01:27 - New Listing-to-Pending Ratio Explained  

0:07:53 - Weekly Market Update: Listings & Pendings  

0:09:51 - Record-Low Back-on-the-Market Insight  

0:14:35 - Guessing Game: Pending Numbers Revealed  

0:21:01 - Monthly Data: 0.55 Ratio Shocker  

0:27:00 - Inventory Hits 11,364—What It Means  

0:34:40 - Buyer’s Market Emerges: City Breakdown  

0:44:29 - Economic Update: Rates & Builder Confidence  

0:53:57 - New Daily ZIP Code Reports Launched  

0:54:19 - Sold Price Surge: Bifurcated Market Unveiled  

0:58:26 - Temporary Trend Warning  

1:00:31 - Price Pullback Prediction  

1:02:50 - Q&A and Wrap-Up

Daily Market Summary

• 13,364 (+21.7% YoY) : Active Residential Listings
• 0.53 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio
• 97.39% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio
• 6.750% : 30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate
• 4.280% : 10-Year Bond Yield